February 1, 2007

Building a Predictive Model

In a previous post I described the standard process for building a predictive model. I found this older article, "The non predictive part of predictive modeling." It provides a bit more detail on the project outline. Based on my experience, I would agree that the actual modeling rarely exceeds 10% of the total project time.

Some catalogers may be intimidated by the techniques required to build a statistics-based predictive model. But actually generating the predictive model - that is, creating the scoring equation - makes up about only 10% of the entire six-step process. The remaining 90% encompasses the nonpredictive part of predictive modeling: developing a sound research design, creating accurate analysis files, performing careful exploratory data analysis, implementing the model, and creating ongoing quality control procedures.

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